Download netCDF Files

The following links include ten zip files with monthly data covering ten climate projections over Minnesota at 4 km horizontal resolution. Also included are two auxiliary zip files with an example analysis and seven zip files with daily bias-adjusted results for temperature and precipitation. Please use the following citation:

Liess, S., Roop, H. A., Twine, T. E., Clark, S., Coffman, D., Dolma, D., Farris, A., Fernandez, A., Gorman, J., Meyer. N., (2026): County-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota and the Effects of Lakes. Water Resources Research, 62, e2025WR040415, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040415.

These results have been performed with six CMIP6 global climate models that have been dynamically downscaled with the regional WRF model for one historical period (1995-2014) and three future periods (2040-2059, 2060-2079, and 2080-2099). Three different scenarios have been applied to the future periods: SSP2 - a middle of the road scenario with a warming of 4.5 W m-2 by the end of the 21st century (SSP245), SSP3 - a regional rivalry scenario with a warming of 7.0 W m-2 (SSP370), and SSP5 - a fossil-fuel development scenario with a warming of 8.5 W m-2 (SSP585).

Please reference this README.txt file for detailed instructions on file format and stored variables as well as two data files with examples. Questions about using or citing these data should be directed to mnclimate@umn.edu.

Each zip archive contains six files of simulated climate data, also included are bias-adjusted results for temperature and precipitation.

Historical simulations - monthly data

SSP245 scenario - monthly data

SSP370 scenario - monthly data

SSP585 scenario - monthly data

Example analysis files

Historical simulations - daily temperature and precipitation

SSP245 scenario - daily temperature and precipitation

SSP370 scenario - daily temperature and precipitation

SSP585 scenario - daily temperature and precipitation

An example for the use of the daily data can be found in:
Trost, J.J., Nielsen, M.G., Westenbroek, S.M., Liess, S., Milinic, B., Potter, S., Noe, R., Twine, T.E., and Roop, H.A. 2026. Simulations of Minnesota water budget components using the Soil-Water-Balance model, past (1981 - 2022) and future (2040-2059 and 2080-2099). U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report.